The table below shows the rankings of each team in terms of wage bill and points won in the Premier League, and the difference between the two.
With the exception of a handful of clubs either under- (Aston Villa, Sunderland and West Ham) or over-performing (WBA and Stoke), most teams finish in around the position that they should. In fact the correlation coefficient of the two sets of data (points accumulated and wage bill) is 0.87.
The chart below shows this correlation.
Next I'd like to draw attention to a couple of observations.
Firstly the work of Roy Hodgson who has taken West Brom from a +2 position (they were 17th when he took over, compared to 19th in the wage bill table) to their current +8 position, and the refusal of some in Liverpool to acknowledge this success.
Secondly, I'm sure it will come as little surprise that those teams with the highest wage bills tend also to be those with the highest amounts of net debt (the correlation coefficient between these two sets of data is 0.74).
Since high wages seem to contribute to high levels of debt AND high levels of success it seems UEFA's Financial Fair play rules are seeking to curb trends that are providing medium term success on the pitch, but have the potential to damage clubs and their fans if they were allowed to continue.
It's not his success at West Brom that some in Liverpool won't accept (as the link you strangely provide will testify), it is his success over the whole year. This would include his disastrous time at Liverpool (at which he spent more time than at West Brom).
ReplyDeleteOther than that, great article - Soccernomics confirmed.
Fair point just think the criticism of Roy has gone too far. He's obviously not an awful manager. This article rams the point home for me http://www.thisisanfield.com/2010/10/hodgson-nice-man-wrong-job/
ReplyDeleteGood read and charts but a thought on this comment:
ReplyDelete"Since high wages seem to contribute to high levels of debt AND high levels of success"
Which implies the more you pay players, the more successful you'll be. I'm not convinced this is true. It seems to me there's reverse causality in that the more successful you are, the better players you'll buy and therefore spend more on wages.
Of course it's a little chicken and egg, but it's worth a consideration.